hurricanes 2015

BPE wrote: I checked out the great comparison on the years 1997-1998 to 2015 of the hurricanes and found that with strong El Ninos that the Baja had no hurricanes for those years. So hoping that this will hold true. Here are the comparisons for similar water temps:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997epac.html 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=1998&basin=epac 

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/30008662/strong-el-nios-compared-side-by-side 

Any comments on this would be very enlightening, high water temps, strong El Nino and no threat of hurricanes. As seems we might be all ok this year.  (unsigned)

BPE wrote:6-7-15 @ 7pmBT:  Power has been out.  Very "windy"  and earlier I felt sand hitting my face when I was out on the patio.  We are in  "downtown" LB. three doors north of Verdugo's Park on the beach. We had maybe 25 drops of rain!
Most of the day the wind was from the east and now it's clocked to the south.

La Paz, Baja California Sur (BCS). The May 15 season officially started tropical cyclone, it concludes the first half of November, regularly. For 2015, the first forecast it has is that 19 tropical cyclones form in the eastern Pacific; of which 8 could reach tropical storm, seven hurricanes of Category 1 and 2, and 4 intense hurricanes of Category 3, 4 and 5.

In this regard, Eleonora Romero Vadillo, professor and researcher of the Academic Department of Biology Marinade UABCS reported that this prediction, as the paths of hurricanes, is based on oceanographic and atmospheric conditions present. However, he added, those conditions may vary by distintitos factors. For example, last year 17 events of this type were expected and in total there were 21.

Tropical cyclones are phenomena that form in the tropics between 15 and 30 degrees north. There are other types of cyclones, such as extratropical, formed farther north and the Arctic, which are hurricanes cold water.

Doctor said it's important that people know that although the 19 predicted cyclones formed, does not mean that everyone will get to BCS, so not to cause alarm among the population; although it should take precautions to avoid preventable mishaps.

"Of the hurricanes that form in the Pacific, most traveling northwest, away from the coast of Mexico. In the first months tend to impact the southern states like Chiapas, Oaxaca and Jalisco. As advances season, usually recurve to the northeast, when stuck in BCS, it would be from the month of July, "he said.

As the average of phenomena landfall in the state, Romero said Vadillo generally ranging from 1 to 2. Many approach the south Californian coasts, but not always landfall.

Moreover, he said that this year has the characteristics of "Year Niño" weather phenomenon that occurs when winds generally blow towards Ecuador. There are years when those winds are weaker and warm water, which is normally biased to the west side remains America and distributed to the north and south. This causes the water are warmer.

From 1966-2014, there have been seven years in which, during the cyclone season, there have been these circumstances. Of these, only twice have impacted tropical cyclones in BCS.

Finally, the researcher invited the South Californian society to be alert to forecasts and above all to follow the official website of the National Weather Service, National Water Commission and the National Hurricane Center of the United States to be well