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Post by dean on Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:55 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2c5SlYGZnrEhbdv7KqQ8jFke_t2fnUq6ScFvR6NDF2-VLLQ19b8ijxV_4

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Post by dean on Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:51 pm

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020

We analyzed reports for 59,073 contacts of 5,706 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) index patients reported in South Korea during January 20–March 27, 2020. Of 10,592 household contacts, 11.8% had COVID-19. Of 48,481 nonhousehold contacts, 1.9% had COVID-19. Use of personal protective measures and social distancing reduces the likelihood of transmission.

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Post by dean on Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:50 pm

https://www.jamda.com/article/S1525-8610(20)30513-2/pdf

Temperature in Nursing Home Residents Systematically Tested for
SARS-CoV-2

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Post by dean on Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:24 am

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.


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Post by dean on Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:01 pm

harvards quick page
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center

Coronavirus Resource Center
As coronavirus spreads, many questions and some answers
Updated: June 25, 2020


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Post by dean on Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:59 pm

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200518144915.htm

COVID-19: Study reports 'staggering' death rate in U.S. among those infected who show symptoms
Date:
May 18, 2020
Source:
University of Washington

Summary:
A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

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Post by dean on Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:31 am

from a friend who is a MD in Mexico City.


a second method of verifying data. looking at old data and current data.

https://datos.nexos.com.mx/?p=1443&fbclid=IwAR1Bw5IQjnQ0T39YcDvP6sTt-FbIjIXpkrFsQO5GTHAxpYGRsBdNL83KrXU

What do CDMX death certificates tell us? Update as of May 31, 2020


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Post by dean on Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:23 pm

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries#action

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/?fbclid=IwAR2EhCRZ-nvme7dVJ0BSIJdJ-qBAAuiJQfXz15q82KZDQyf-XtWVLsTbtko

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=11238d8a92&fbclid=IwAR16S8VQvwjk9YXTJg1u6MXJI9gbXa7joV0aLaUkW09VlaOpJAGIJX7a_dU


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Post by dean on Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:30 pm

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

https://covid19-projections.com/


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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:24 pm

this is an adjustable, Epidemic Calculator

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2KnZPU0kTOHCAMR9k4paIBlaEYVhkE721YtWmWsn0k9_UxXN4CB6GluFA

new york time data   https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

good newsindicating social distancing works.   thanks Canada.
Physical distancing has halved rate of spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269?fbclid=IwAR384VoYOCEIpuwuOAjZI-zlyleajOdSZGVYlNOq2lyPIRHpif-g3WhuXyw

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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:22 pm

US Health Weather Map

https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:13 pm

boy does this look good...    in essence, it appears Mexico does get the TB vaccine and because of it, i had been wondering why their death rates were so low.    So before I was estimating at a 1% mortality we could have a 40 to one multiplier in cases.     This would mean at 0.1 percent vs the 1% it is 400 times multiplier for cases.      

This will have huge positive  implications for Mexico.




https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-striking-evidence-bcg-vaccine-might-protect-against-covid-19-1.4222110


Coronavirus: More ‘striking’ evidence BCG vaccine might protect against Covid-19
Study shows countries with vaccination programmes have far fewer cases
Mon, Apr 6, 2020, 15:16 Updated: Mon, Apr 6, 2020, 15:18




More “striking” evidence has emerged that the BCG vaccine given to counter TB may provide protection against Covid-19 and significantly reduce death rates in countries with high levels of vaccination.

A study of 178 countries by an Irish medical consultant working with epidemiologists at the University of Texas in Houston shows countries with vaccination programmes – including Ireland – have far fewer coronavirus cases by a factor 10, compared to where BCG programmes are no longer deployed.

This translates into a death rate up to 20-times less, according to urologist Paul Hegarty of the Mater Hospital, Dublin.

Their “correlation” study, expected to be published shortly by PLOS journal, is largely a statistical one and comes with caveats because of possibility of confounding factors. But it is more comprehensive than an initial one conducted in New York, which prompted a scaling up of clinical trials on people with Covid-19.

To reduce the possibility of error, the researchers re-evaluated cases during the course of the pandemic and made country-by-country comparisons including between Ireland and the UK, Mr Hegarty said. “We did not expect to see such a marked difference.”

“Over the 15 days, incidence of Covid-19 was 38 per million in countries with BCG vaccination whereas the incidence of Covid-19 was 358 per million in the absence of such a programme. The death rate was 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programmes and 40 per million in countries without such a programme,” he added.

https://www.gob.mx/salud/articulos/vacuna-bcg-contra-la-tuberculosis

Vacuna BCG contra la tuberculosis

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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:07 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3?r=MX&IR=T

data 5e6bf336e4f9fe0a976c50e7?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp

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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:06 pm

so much for Singapore testing and tracking was the claim to their fame.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/singapore-had-a-model-coronavirus-response-then-cases-spiked-what-happened/ar-BB12QTws?ocid=spartandhp

Less than a month ago, Singapore was being hailed as one of the countries that had got its coronavirus response right.

© ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/AFP via Getty Images People look on as the letters and symbol SG Love, lights the facade of Marina Bay Sands as message of hope amid the nations fight against COVID-19 coronavirus in Singapore on April 10, 2020.
Encouragingly for the rest of the world, the city-state seemed to have suppressed cases without imposing the restrictive lockdown measures endured by millions elsewhere.

And then the second wave hit, hard. Since March 17, Singapore's number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew from 266 to over 5,900, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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Post by dean on Sat May 02, 2020 1:05 pm

very interesting,  they are doing statistical sampling and have come back with my multiplier....      I was giving a ratio of 40 to one for Mexico with an upper range of a ratio of 1000 from dead in Mexico coming from a TB vaccinated population of  0.01 percent mortality.      

https://news.yahoo.com/new-studies-suggest-huge-undercount-of-coronavirus-infections-but-are-they-right-161418566.html

New studies suggest huge undercount of coronavirus infections — but are they right?

The number of COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County may be more than 50 times greater than the official count, according to preliminary results from a new study by the University of Southern California, which estimates that as many as 442,000 adult residents of Los Angeles County may have already been infected.

The implication, as lead USC investigator Neeraj Sood told reporters Monday, is that “the true extent of the infection in our communities” is far greater than previously known.

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